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Archive for September, 2007

Nokia Siemens Steadies

Tuesday, September 4th, 2007

 Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) said on Monday it had reassured customers over the merger that created the telecom equipment maker, after uncertainty dented sales in the second quarter.   April-June sales at the network equipment venture, owned equally by Nokia and Siemens, fell more than 10 percent, both from the first quarter and a year earlier.

Some of the total of about 600 customers of the joint venture, formed on April 1, were cautious about placing new orders until they had more details of the company’s product portfolio and strategy, Simon Beresford-Wylie said.  The world’s second-largest mobile networks company after Swedish rival Ericsson, Nokia Siemens has been able to retain most customers, despite aggressive price cuts at Ericsson, Beresford-Wylie said.

Restructuring programs at newly merged Nokia Siemens and Alcatel-Lucent gave Ericsson the opportunity to steal market share by undercutting prices, analysts have said.  The NSN chief met clients in Russia, India, China, as well as countries in the Middle East, Latin America and Europe in the last two months to discuss the venture.

Nokia and Siemens merged their networks business partly to be able to weather periods of slow growth better by sharing high fixed costs for research and development and reducing overheads. NSN plans to cut 9,000 jobs as part of plans to save 1.5 billion euros ($2.05 billion) a year.  NSN’s decision last month to base its services business unit in India was part of a larger plan to focus on emerging markets, which will account for 50-60 percent of cell phone users in 2015, Beresford-Wylie said.

About 1.4 billion of the world’s three billion cell phone users are now in China, India and Latin America, he said. Most of the two billion people expected to start owning cell phones in the next eight years would come from emerging markets, including those in the Middle East and Africa, he said.

Nokia, the world’s top cell phone maker, said in August India overtook the United States in the second quarter to become its second-biggest market by sales after China.  Wow, no surprise there!

CAPEX Tumbles

Monday, September 3rd, 2007

Japanese firms cut capital spending by 4.9 percent in April-June from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, confounding forecasts and adding to views that the Bank of Japan will hold off from raising rates this month.  I challenge this and think rates will definately be rising.

The first decline in 17 quarters, in sharp contrast with a median forecast by economists for an 11.5 percent rise, signaled that economic growth for the quarter could be revised down from preliminary figures.  The yen was little changed near 115.80 to the dollar after the data’s release, while the Nikkei share average (.N225) opened down 0.35 percent at 16,511.07.

Excluding software, capital spending fell 5.7 percent from a year earlier and was down 10.2 percent from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, the survey by the Ministry of Finance showed.  The survey also showed Japanese firms’ recurring profits rose 12.0 percent in April-June, while sales were up 3.3 percent.

Economists watch the ministry’s capital spending data closely as it is used in calculating revised GDP figures for the quarter. April-June GDP will be issued on September 10.  Preliminary data showed Japan’s economy expanded for the 10th straight quarter in April-June but grow slowed to an annualized 0.5 percent from the previous quarter’s 3.2 percent on softness in exports and personal spending.

Brisk business expenditure has been a key driver of Japan’s economy, which is enjoying its longest spell of growth in the postwar era, albeit at a slower pace than in previous booms.  Some economists said the survey’s weakness was partly due to one-off factors.

“The lower-than-expected reading appears to be due to changes in survey samples especially in small and mid-sized firms. As the manufacturing sector showed double-digit growth, corporate capital expenditures are not as weak as the data indicates,” said Takumi Tsunoda, an economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.  With chances of a September BOJ rate hike fading, market traders will look at the central bank’s tankan corporate sentiment survey, due in early October, for clues on whether a rate hike will come next month.

IKB Eyes Huge Loss

Monday, September 3rd, 2007

German lender IKB Industriebank AG, hit by its exposure to the U.S. subprime lending crisis, expects to lose up to €700 million ($954 million) this fiscal year as it aims for a “fresh start,” the company said Monday.

However, the bank - which has won help from the state-owned KfW development bank and other banks to help protect its exposure to subprime mortgage securities - said its “liquidity position for the next six months is covered without raising new capital market funds.”

IKB’s problems sprang from its Rhineland Funding investment vehicle’s apparent inability to cover its funding needs because of exposure to U.S. subprime real estate loans, made to borrowers with weak credit histories.

In late July, IKB abandoned a profit forecast for the 2007-2008 fiscal year of €280 million ($382 million). It said it had “felt the impact of the crisis in the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market,” and said its chief executive, Stefan Ortseifen, had resigned.

Germany’s bigger banks so far have reported only minimal exposure but we will have to see what the truth is, as more reports come in.

Wallstreet on Edge

Monday, September 3rd, 2007

Wall Street investors left for Labor Day weekend pleased about the prospects of an interest rate cut, but they’re likely to come back wanting more evidence that rates are indeed about to come down.  Expect to see some termpered buying on Tuesday morning.

The market has been in better spirits, for the most part, over the past two weeks than in midsummer, when fears that lending troubles would freeze up credit sent stocks tumbling. Although the Fed has injected cash into the banking system and lowered the discount rate - the rate it charges commercial banks for loans - Wall Street’s fears haven’t been completely assuaged.  The Dow Jones industrials and Standard & Poor’s 500 finished slightly lower in a week where it plunged and later recovered. The Nasdaq finished the week higher.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has not come right out and declared that a rate cut will happen, but many investors believe he has telegraphed it by saying the central bank will “act as needed.” Traders who bet on the Fed’s next move are not only pricing in a 100 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut at its next meeting on Sept. 18, but also are pricing in a 100 percent chance of similar move in October.

The Fed has not reduced the benchmark fed funds rate since 2003, when it declined from a low 1.25 percent to 1 percent. Starting in 2004, the central bank made gradual rate increases until the summer of 2006, when it began holding the benchmark rate at 5.25 percent - the highest it’s been since early 2001, but historically, fairly moderate.  Investors will be curious to see if the Bank of England and European Central Bank decide to lower rates Thursday. Rate cuts abroad could signal a similar move from the Fed.

Investors also want to know if the U.S. job market, which has been one of the more stable parts of the economy, is holding up. The Labor Department’s report comes out Friday. Economists surveyed by Thomson Financial predict that nonfarm payrolls rose in August, that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent, and that hourly earnings ticked up by 0.3 percent.